Is climate change real and human caused? Lets look at Premises and Evaluation of both arguments

By Hope Elena Sardella, June 11 2018

Since the early 20th century, we have seen temperatures on Earth increase approximately 1.8°F. Additionally, over this same time period we’ve seen an increase in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). While both sides of the climate change debate seem to agree on these two points, there is little else they agree upon (ProCon.org, n.d.). This paper will begin to explore the specific question of whether climate change is real and caused by humans. It will explore articles that argue on each side in an effort to evaluate the quality of the reasoning of each. Article Supporting Climate Change as Real and Human Caused The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) ran a news story in 2013 that discussed a report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The news story argues that global temperatures are rising and the planet is warming, and continued rising emissions by humans will make it so hot that glaciers and ice sheets will melt away completely. The reasoning given contains these key premises:

Premise 1: Global temperatures have risen by almost a degree since the pre-industrial era, and average land and sea temperatures continue to rise (ABC, 2013).

Premise 2: Glaciers and ice sheets are melting faster; evidence suggests that continued rising emissions would eventually lead to a near complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet (ABC, 2013). Conclusion: The message from scientists is clear: the planet is warming and humans are mostly to blame (ABC, 2013)

Evaluation of the Quality of the Argument Supporting Climate Change as Real and
Human Caused

The argument given appears to make strong points in favor of the conclusion. The first premise seems to demonstrate that climate change is real since we have seen increases in land and sea temperatures over the past couple centuries, and the second premise seems to indicate that emissions, caused my humans, is heating up the environment so much so that it continues to melt glaciers and ice sheets, thereby supporting the truth of both parts of the conclusion – climate change, specifically global warming, is real and human caused. For these premises to adequately support the conclusion, however, we need to assume that there is no other cause for climate change. For example, the news story claims that continued rising emissions would melt the Greenland ice sheet. There is no evidence included in the story that backs up the claim that emissions are currently causing the ice sheet to melt. Perhaps the sun has been getting hotter over time and that is what is causing the glaciers and ice sheets to melt; or perhaps gases and heat from erupting volcanos are the cause. In cases like those, the premises of this argument could be true and the conclusion false. Therefore, even if the premises are true, the argument does not adequately support the conclusion that climate change is caused by humans, only that humans may play a part.

Article Against Climate Change as Real and Human Caused

In a blog post in 2017, Ben Armstrong, a talk radio host on WSAU in Wisconsin, discussed how climate change is a hoax. Mr. Armstrong argues that climate change is just a theory developed by scientists, and these scientists change and bend data to fit their current theory so their theory, therefore, is not a scientifically proven fact. The reasoning given contains these key premises:

Premise 1: Scientific theories are different than fact-based science. If scientific theory were fact, then we would be headed for an Ice Age, at least that’s what scientists theorized in the 1970s. Now they say the Earth is warming. Either way, it’s all just theories (Armstrong, 2017).

Premise 2: Climate change theories ignore scientific facts we know, such as solar activity dictating the temperature on Earth and ocean evaporation dictating the amount of CO2 in the air (Armstrong, 2017).

Conclusion: The theory of climate change has not been proven to be true and ignores scientific facts we already know; as far as fact-based science is concerned, climate change is not real (Armstrong, 2017).

Evaluation of the Quality of the Argument Against Climate Change as Real and Human
Caused

The argument given appears to make strong points in favor of the conclusion. The first premise seems to demonstrate that climate change is not real since it is just one of many scientific theories, and the second premise seems to indicate that scientists who believe in the climate change theory ignore contradictory evidence that disputes their theory, thereby supporting the truth of both parts of the conclusion – climate change is just a theory and therefore not real or human caused.

For these premises to adequately support the conclusion, however, we need to assume that there is a difference between science and a scientific theory. The blog posting seems to indicate that a scientific theory is not science, however the term “theory” is used differently in science than in our everyday usage of the term (Ghose, 2013). According to Ghose (2013), a scientific theory is an:

“explanation of some aspect of the natural world that has been
substantiated through repeated experiments or testing.”

Ghose, 2013

References

Armstrong, B. (2017, March 29). Climate Change Science Is Not Real Science [Blog Post].
Retrieved from http://wsau.com/blogs/ben-armstrong-blog/20344/climate-change-science-is-not-real-science/

Ghose, T. (2013, April 2). “Just a Theory”: 7 Misused Science Words. Scientific American.
Retrieved from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/just-a-theory-7-misused-science-words/

Is Human Activity Primarily Responsible for Global Climate Change? (n.d.). ProCon.org.
Retrieved from https://climatechange.procon.org/

The planet is warming and we’re mostly to blame: IPCC report. (2013, September 19). ABC.
Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com.proxy-library.ashford.edu/login.aspx?direct=true&db=n5h& AN=P6S299314575213&site=eds-live&scope=site